John, how much, if any stock do you put into outlooks based on historical weather? For example, will you look for a summer similiar to this past one, and use the winter that followed the similiar summer as a basis to create your winter outlook?

It's called analog years, but I have never really found it to be too much help. Believe me, I have scoured the historical records looking for connections, but have never found any to be very reliable. Others use it and claim it to be reliable, but I have seen many a seasonal forecast bomb using analog years. Sounds fancy though!

With that said, I have found the technique of thinking that mother nature likes to even out the score over the long run. So if the summer and autumn have been warm and dry then I feel the odds are greater that the winter will be cool and wet. Does not work all the time, but has proven to be somewhat reliable.

-John