Grading yourself

General Discussions: ASK John: Grading yourself

By regionrat on Saturday, January 10, 2009 - 09:35 am: Edit Post

John, do you "grade" your forecasts for accuracy? If you do, how do you critique long range (4+ days) outlooks?
Thanks.


By admin on Monday, January 12, 2009 - 12:10 pm: Edit Post

regionrat-

I certainly try and pay attention to how my forecasts are going in all time frames. We learn best from our mistakes.

Not really sure what you mean by how do I critique long range outlooks. I use the same methods I would use in the short term, just keep track of what I thought would happen vs. what did happen.

If you mean how do I think I am doing, that will differ from week to week, depending on the pattern, how the models are performing and how well I am intergrating the model data into my forecasts.

So far this winter, some weeks have been better than others.

-John


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