It has been a month since you put together your 2009/2010 seasonal outlook and mentioned the dreaded El Nino. You mentioned that the strength of the El Nino will make a big difference in the weather seen across the US this winter.

So one month later, has there been any change to the El Nino?

we all need to do a anti El Nino dance and pray for a La Nina return Right now it don't look too good but hopefully it will change soon Say some prayers to Think SNOW and have a great day!!!

Well, there is bad news and maybe some good news.

The bad news is that it did strengthen in October and sits between a weak and moderate El Nino (similar to those in 03, 04 and 05).

The potentially good news is that is looks to me maturing, which would first mean it would not get much stronger and secondly may even start to weaken some.

So I would not break out the champagne just yet, but perhaps this event will not be a total spoiler for the winter.

-John

Just a "hint" of light, I'll take it.

When scientists talk about El Nino's strength, is it based solely on water temperature and the length of time that water has been at a certain temperature? If not, what other factors determine El Nino's strength? Thanks.

matti-

There are a number of factors, but the sea surface temps in the region where the ENSO occurs is probably the most popular way of determining the strength.

As for the water temps, they use a 3 month running mean to make the call as to if an El Nino is going or not. There are weekly fluctuations, but they should not be used to determine direction of things out there.

-John

Picked some nightcrawlers off the lawn last night,cant ever remember doing it this late!! maybe moon shots knocked it off its axis!! we will be riding in late april-may next spring!!

My fiance stepped outside last night in Duluth and eeked at all the worms on the lawn!

We need cold before it snows, or we'll be saying the same thing all winter......

Ubee found out cluster flies luv those worms & lay eggs in them. There is a guy out of Conover that sprays house & land to control cluster flies. Might give him a try next Spring or who knows they might just go away like locust.

I used Cyonara 9.7 on the outside of my cabin last summer, no more cluster flies!

http://store.doyourownpestcontrol.com/product.aspx?iid=186

John-
Is there a site to monitor the strength of the El Nino throughout the winter, or is it too complicated for the normal joe to understand?

I use the CPC's website:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

You can decide for yourself if it is too complicated!

-John

Something BETTER change!! We are on track to set a mark that hasn't been set since AT LEAST before 1950 (The archive only goes back that far). And that is 0 snow in Nov. Forecast isn't looking to favorable for much to change either. Guess I should have bought an ATV this year!!! lol DOH

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Which comes first - Snow or the Cold ?

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We need the cold to come first and freeze everything up good, then let it snow.

Ubee is right!! Nightcrawlers spotted in Clarkston, Mich.