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Poker Run Sheet for Ride-In

Wednesday, January 28, 2015

GENERAL PICTURE:

Ideas are still pointing to a Colorado low looks to bring some light to moderate snows to the central and portions of the S. Midwest Sunday, with cold and LES to get going as we head through the end of this week into the weekend and continue into next week.

1-4 DAY FORECAST:

Things will be fairly quiet across the region for most of today and then the next system will arrive for later today and tomorrow and looks to bring a bit of light snow to the far northern Midwest. It looks like most of the energy and moisture will pass to the north of the Midwest and supply areas north of Lake Superior with the 2-5” that was to fall in the far northern Midwest. An inch or two will be possible in the far northern Midwest tonight and early tomorrow, but that looks to be about it.

Things then look to quiet down as far as system snows go by later tomorrow into Friday and Saturday, with some lake effect getting going in the UP, but at a pace of a couple of inches every 24 hours or so.

Temps will running above average in all of the region today, including above freezing temps in much of the region. Temps will then begin to fall to below average as we head through the day tomorrow into Friday and by the weekend, the freeze line will be shoved down into the central Midwest.

5-10 DAY FORECAST:

There are growing indications that an area of low pressure will develop in CO on Saturday and head east into the OH River Valley by Sunday. It is still far enough out in the forecast to be locking in the exact totals with the system snows Sun-Mon, although totals at this point still look to be in the 3-6” range across much of IA, the northern 3/4ths of IL, IN and OH as well as southern sections of WI and MI, with some totals possibly more than 6” in some sections of IL, IN and OH.

Things will then quiet down in most of the region for next week, with a few weak clipper systems to bring some light snows to the northern ˝ of the region from time to time.

The other snow story in this time frame will be the cold air that will flow across the mostly open waters of the Great Lakes and lead to fairly persistent LES for most of the period. The LES may not be overly heavy in any one particular 24 hour period, but will fall pretty persistently in the belts favored by west and NW winds (Porkies to Copper Harbor and Munising to Paradise in the UP as well as NWL MI). This could lead to quite a few locales picking up double digit totals from later Friday into early next week, perhaps even as much as 2 feet in some favored locales.

-John

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