Friday, March 29, 2013

A quick note on the graphics: The solid shading represents snowfall that I think has a pretty good chance of happening (>65-70%). Areas outlined in a solid line are where I think there is a notable chance of the snow indicated by the text within the lined area falling, but confidence is not high enough to use solid shading.

Note: Today’s forecast will be the final one for the season. - John

Recent Snowfall: Note, all reports in this write up are preliminary. I do not get full reports to me until after putting this out.

Things were quiet across the region again yesterday, with temps finding their way above freezing in all of the region.

Highlights:

No major changes. A bit of light snow will coat the Northwoods later this weekend, with some heavier lake effect for later Sunday into Monday. Then back to quiet and a slow melting.

1-4 DAY FORECAST:

Things will remain quiet across the region for today.

The outlook for the weekend still sees a pair of fronts to work through and bring chances for a couple of inches of snow to much of the Northwoods, with light rains to the south.

The first front coming through tomorrow will have enough warm air with it to generate some rains and a bit of snow mixed across northern MN and the UP, as well as extreme northern sections of WI. All of that precip will be light.

The second front looks to produce mainly snow in the Northwoods, but accumulations look to be around an inch or so in most cases.

Behind the second front Saturday night and early Sunday, a late season brand of arctic air looks to set the stage for lake effect snows to occur in the UP and NWL MI snow belts from later Sunday through Monday night. Only minor changes have been made to the details with that LES activity and it is still a bit too far out in the forecast to be trying to nail down exactly who will get what.

With that said, it looks like winds will be more NW, rather than westerly or west-northwesterly. Thus the snows will fall in the traditional spots of the western UP from the Porkies to Copper Harbor and in the east from Munising to Paradise, with the higher terrain from Rockland to South Range and then inland areas from Wetmore to south of Grand Marais to see the heavies totals. Estimates on amounts have been lowered a bit too, with most areas to see a general 3-7” fall, with some isolated heavier totals possible.

LES is also likely in NWL MI by Sunday night into early Tuesday morning, with ideas on accumulations in the 2-5” range on a general scale, with some isolated heavier totals.

Temps will be running average to a bit below average for the next 4 days, although most of the Northwoods will see temps to out in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s for the next 2-3 days and then temps will fall to below freezing for highs by later Sunday into Monday.

5-10 DAY FORECAST:

Things then look to quiet down in most of the region by Monday and the LES will finish up on Tuesday and most areas look to be dry for the rest of the week.

There is a system towards the end of next week that could bring some snows or even a rain/snow mix to the Northwoods.

Temps for the first half of next week look to remain below freezing in the Northwoods and then by the second half of the week and into the following weekend, will be back to above freezing for highs, with daytime highs in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s.

The Bottom Line:

This is the final weekend for riding in most of the Northwoods groomed trails and thus the final report for the season. I hope everyone was able to take advantage of the strong second half of the season. Certainly some of the best snow play in all of the northern Midwest, not just the Northwoods in years. Hard-core guys will still be able to find some snow to ride in areas of the Northwoods (especially LES belts of the UP) for a few more weeks.

-John

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