Well…after countless interrogations of wooly worms (no waterboarding was used), counting of acorns, measuring the height of bees nests and measuring the angle of the dangle of the new growth branches in the eastern white birch trees, the results are finally in as to EXACTLY what this winter will bring!

Ok, all joking aside, I always start my outlook with the disclosure that: There is no way to reliably predict the weather on a seasonal scale, no matter what anyone says! Those of you who have been following my site know that I am always been pretty low key and skeptical of any seasonal forecast- even my own. In fact I like to use the work "outlook" as I feel "forecast" should be reserved for something that has a little more proven science behind it.

For those of you that are relatively new to the site, you might want to click here and read my "Soap Box Speech on Seasonal Forecasting". For those of you that have read it before, no need to again- it is the same as in years past.

Now with that said, I still get pressure to produce a winter forecast and sometimes there are things that can make the weather "lean" in a certain direction for a season, so here is my thinking:

Figure 1 shows the typical weather anomalies seen across the US during El Nino events. Note the large area of below average temps that extends from eastern Alaska south through western Canada and into the northwest and north central US. I believe that this anomaly will be more pronounced during this La Nina winter than it was last winter because this La Nina is currently forecasted to be a little weaker than last years.

So that lays the foundation for these areas to see a colder than average winter, but it takes more than just cold to make snow, you need moisture. I do believe that in conjunction with the colder than average conditions, the storm track will be quite active in these areas and this will result in frequent snow events, which will lead to above average snowfall for these areas. The below average temps will also help to keep the snow that falls from melting and thus by late winter, there could be some fairly healthy snow depths in these areas.

Areas further south (the central/southern Plains, southern Midwest and into the NE US) could still see a fairly active storm track, but I believe it will not be as active as last year and there will also be the issue where temps may not be cold enough for all the precip events to bring snow.

That covers the general thinking, so here are the regional forecasts for the different areas of the northern US:

REGION 1 – The Northwest Midwest: As long as the La Nina does not grow to be a strong one again, I believe that this region stands a very good chance to see below average temps and average to above average snowfall. The correlation’s between La Nina and cold are most pronounced for this region of the Midwest and while most of the area did pretty good for snow and cold last year, there were stand outs- notably the Lake Effect Snow (LES) belts of the UP and some other areas of the UP as well as into northern WI. I believe this was due to partly to the fact that the La Nina was so strong. The polar jet that is made more active by La Nina was, I believe, pushed further south by the strength of the La Nina and thus kept all the storminess further south.

So, other than the Pac. NW and the northern Rockies, I believe that this region stands the best chance to see above average snowfall and below average temps this winter. Not that I am predicting a record winter for all locales, but there should be a lot more smiles than frowns from snow lovers in these areas by the time all is said and done next spring. I also believe that it will be an average to above average year for LES across the downwind sides of the Great Lakes and there is the potential for one of the LES belts of the UP (cannot say which one at this point) to see a very active snow season.

REGION 2 – The Southeast Midwest: Overall, I think these areas are in for an average to colder than average winter. Snowfall looks to also be average to above average, which means some snow storms and periods of good snow play, but also includes thaws and periods where there just is not enough snow on the ground to play in- even in the dead of winter. As a rule of thumb, I think the further south you go, the more prone you will be to see above precip, but also average temps occur. My worry is that folks in the southern ½ of WI and portions of northern IL that have seen well above average snowfall the past few years will think of those as being average. So if average conditions occur this season, they will be thought of as being below average. Keep in mind that average snowfall for many areas of southern WI and northern IL is 40-50", not 60-80".

REGION 3 – The Northeast US: This is the only region in the northern US that does not really have a strong connection to any anomalies brought about by El Nino/La Nina. Thus, I believe that the winter months for these areas will present fairly close to average conditions. I think that areas like northern Maine will stand to see milder than average conditions occur, but not necessarily warm enough to impact snowfall and snow cover. The rest of New England looks to be in store for a fairly average winter, perhaps a bit late in it’s true arrival, but then running strong for the first part and finishing a little weaker than average.

REGION 4 – The Northern Rockies: Like the northern Plains and northern Midwest, this region also stands pretty good chances to see cooler than average temps occur. Last year was a huge year for snows in many areas here and while I believe it will be another very good year for this region, I do not think that snows will be quite as heavy as was seen last season. That being mainly because last season was near record levels and it is hard to repeat such a feat two years in a row. So, it looks to be a very good year to head to the northern Rockies, with the only downside being the potential for increased avalanche risk.

REGION 5 – The Central Rockies: This region will again be split in two, with the northern half to see close to average temps and snowfall occur, while the south sees a fairly mild and quiet snow season. Not that the mountains of the southern Rockies will be void of snow, but there will likely be fewer and smaller snow events than is seen in a typical year.

REGION 6 – The Pacific NW and Sierra Range: This region could also be split in two, with the north seeing above average snowfall and below average temps and the south seeing below average snowfall and average temps. As is always the case, areas of the Sierra Range will see some storms roll through and bring snows and these storms could be big ones, but La Nina is not kind to most of CA snow lovers and those folks will likely be having to drive north to find the fresh.

REGION 7 – Eastern Canada: This region is likely to see average snowfall and temperatures. I wish that I had more to say, but in all honesty, I really do not feel strongly one way or the other about the winter for these areas. There is no strong connection between winter weather in these areas and La Nina and I really do not see any other strong reasons to venture too far from average for these areas.