My Seasonal Outlook is Out

[admin]

Just a note to let you all know my seasonal outlook is out and is available in the Forecast Text page (http://www.johndee.com/forecast.htm)

Please do not shoot the messenger!

-John

[Firecatguy]

ouch...

might be another snow chasing year!!well we get to see alot new places that way...

[chadlyt]

dear lord...

This is the main reason i hate being in SE MN...

Thanks John for the forcast. Loosk like i'll be trailering to the snow!

[nytro_rtx]

John, thanks for the forcast, might not look the best but atleast we should still get our lake effect!!
nytro

[ezra]

just shoot me.

[mrs_bob]

I hope less snowfall doesn't mean more ice storms for east-central Iowa. http://www.johndee.com/discuss/clipart/sad.gif

[yamahachick]

NOOOOO we want more not less!

[samc]

Time to give the trailer a good once over!

[rooney11979]

I have not read it yet but can tell its already bad news.

[lx700kev]

Figures. My fault people. Bought a new sled. GRRRRR!

[rooney11979]

Thanks for taking the time to give this to us. We will keep our fingers crossed and hope for the best.

[skylar]

Well, I am going to copy John on the optimisim (Nash)here, it looks like my heat bill will be less this year, and the business's in the lake effect belts in the yoop, who need the money, should have a banner year this winter! http://www.johndee.com/discuss/clipart/happy.gif

Have trailer, will travel!

[admin]

Plus, I could always be WRONG! http://www.johndee.com/discuss/clipart/happy.gif

-John

[hunter74]

Not worried.. Looks like a typical conservative NOAA outlook. Because its a Nino it will be warmer and less snowy. Less snowier than the last two seasons I agree with. But not so much the warm forecast.

Thanks a lot for putting your outlook out, always look forward to it.. But I hope you bust miserably.

[NytroFIB]

Yikes! Perhaps I will keep the waverunner ready for plan B!

[so8434]

Or maybe lx700kev could just sell his sled....

[chadlyt]

looking at our local snowfall last year...

we were a tad above average, but it all came before new years and melted away in February. That was a crappy season. So this outlook could have been for us last year...

here's hoping for snow!

[xsledder]

I just had that feeling watching NOAA this summer and fall. Now the sun is starting to wake up, more sunspot activity according to Spaceweather.

Thank you for the outlook John.

[regionrat]

John,
If the El Nino doesn't strengthen by early-mid December, does the outlook for cold and snow significantly increase?

[frnash]

John &#40;<font color="0000ff">admin</font>&#41;:
Glad to see you back in business!
There&#39;s just one little wrinkle with the seasonal outlook — there&#39;s a bad link in the third paragraph, as reads:
&#34;… my <font color="0000ff"><u>&#39;Soap Box Speech on Seasonal Forecasting</u>&#39;</font>&#34;.<blockquote><hr size=0><!-quote-!><font size=1>quote:</font>

The requested URL /DOCUME~1/John/LOCALS~1/Temp/FrontPageTempDir/soapbox.htm was not found on this server.<!-/quote-!><hr size=0></blockquote><font color="0000ff">skylar:</font>
<strike>optimisim</strike> = optimism

[skylar]

Thanks Nash, I knew you would come through for me. http://www.johndee.com/discuss/clipart/happy.gif

[admin]

regionrat-

It may be too strong of a statement to say it that way. I think a more proper way to say it would be if the El Nino does not strengthen by the start of winter, then the warm anomaly and all the related issues it brings about would not be as meaningful.

-John

[olsmann]

Man, couldnt you have just lied to us for now? J/k No offense, but I think everyone is rooting aginst you this time! Just like Skylar said Have trailer, will travel!

[saber]

Sorry everyone, it&#39;s all my fault. We finally bought our own cabin this summer. I knew this would happen.

maybe if I convinced the wife I need a new sled then we could all wear shorts thru Feb as well.

The sled is almost ready to go, I guess I need to give the trailer a good look over as well.

Just remember: A bad day on the trails is better than a good day at home.

[snoeatr]

Man people are down today on that outlook. Remember that doesn&#39;t mean we won&#39;t have snow all winter! John said less snow and cold than the last 2 years, but not 70 and sunny all winter. The past 2 seansons where great and we are lucky for that. There still could be tons of snow, nobody knows for sure. We have delt with lots of El Nino years in the past and have always snowmobiled. The only bad thing is the fall has been typical of the El Nino year with cold and wet conditions. Lets hope winter bucks the trend. As long as the snowbelts keep it coming of the lake it will be a good winter. As far as us in the central and southern midwest, we are used to getting snow and it melting within a week so get out there when you can and trailer to the northwoods whenever possible.

Let it snow!

[pfd_crew]

well said snoeatr, i never really ride around home anyways, always trailer to the U.P. It will be a good season, just think snowhttp://www.johndee.com/discuss/clipart/happy.gif

[NytroFIB]

Ahhh...but waverunning would be fun on the trails - LOL!

[canoepaddler]

Have trailer....will travel.

[ubee]

Its going to be a real cold winter,The locals all have big woodpiles! http://www.johndee.com/discuss/messages/9/118068.jpg

[cmharcou]

All the willy worms in my area are black. I haven&#39;t seen a white one yet. So hopefully the willy worms are giving us a clue.

[anonomoose]

John says&#34;It may be too strong of a statement to say it that way. I think a more proper way to say it would be if the El Nino does not strengthen by the start of winter, then the warm anomaly and all the related issues it brings about would not be as meaningful. ,&#34;

Ah, yes....&#34;Sunny today with a chance of rain, highs in the 70&#39;s and lows in the -10 area, unless the sun fails to show up in which case the Highs will be in the -10 area and the lows will be near 70.

Guess I will be watchin the sheep on the hill AGAIN this year. Sheep stand up..they&#39;er hungry...sheep lay down they are tired...the rest is all up to interpretation.....

Don&#39;t forget ...weathermen can be wrong 70% of the time and still get a paycheck....:-&#41;

[lakesimcoe]

Thanks John,

Your seasonal outlook is much appreciated by me every year, albeit the gloomy outlook is a downer, but would rather have the truth than a sugar coated lie....

Thanks again

David

[2000sxr700]

Ubee, you are a fricken classic man. you come up with the best pics at the right time! Awesome.

[whitedust]

Thanks JD what will be will be. Dec 1 starts the countdown but we ALWAYS have enough snow to go sleddin. Sounds like don&#39;t wait ride while conditions hold.

[hunter74]

Wish the outlook call had more reasoning outside of it being a, Nino possibly strengthening.

And a elaboration of this would be nice.. But being sick all month I can&#39;t complain with the generic&#39;s.

&#34;things have occurred since then to convince me that the odds are strong that the current El Nino will play a role in the weather we see across the US this winter.&#34;

[dcsnomo]

Hey John-
Remember the old joke about &#34;well, Mom&#39;s on the roof?&#34;
You could have started out that way, at least!

[mezz]

I don&#39;t necessarily disagree with the points mentioned in the outlook, it is a conservative outlook. After all, John does tend to keep his outlooks on the conservative side. There are indeed too many factors that can change during the course of time. A factor that does play in our favor at this point &amp; time is that El Nino is in a weaker state now than it was earlier this summer &amp; appears to be weakening, however, that does not mean it cannot change. I firmly believe that a weak El Nino could play out in our favor here in the Keweenaw if all elements come into play at the right time, i.e. cold enough to keep the LES going yet just warm enough to keep the Big Lake from capping off entirely with ice. We could also be lucky enough to have that scenerio as well as a train of system snows. It&#39;s been 30 years since our last record snow year, we are due for a repeat performance. Will we?, someday, will it happen this year? No one knows for sure. It&#39;s weather, you can&#39;t really predict it, however, anything is possible. The Keweenaw will have snow, how much?, that is up to Mother Nature, it is certainly not in our hands. I am remaining optimistic about the outcome of our winter, after all, we haven&#39;t really been let down too often. &#34;Think Snow&#34;, I always do.http://www.johndee.com/discuss/clipart/happy.gif-Mezz

[sabercat]

Whats a willy worm?

[hunter74]

The weak Nino is going in the other direction of weakening.. But there are so many other factors that come into play that make my head spin. I was just hoping to get a little more &#40;spinning&#41; in depth reasoning from John in his outlook.

Until the pattern from the last two yrs worth of weather changes, I guess you could give me reasons why this winter will be above average temps and below average snow until I&#39;m blue in the face from spinning and I wouldn&#39;t buy it, El Nino and all.

[anonomoose]

Whats a willy worm?

It&#39;s what the guy above with the axe, doesn&#39;t have. He be lucky to find it for a month.

[m8man]

Maybe a call 4 Meester Bleezard all da time will help!

m8man

[cmharcou]

Wooly worm forecasters say that the size of the brown band of color will tell you what kind of winter is coming. Legend says that the thinner the brownish red bands, the harsher the winter will be. If the wooly worm is mostly brownish red in the middle, winter will be mild.


http://www.ehow.com/how_2143194_predict-winter-wooly-worms.html

[Falcon20]

In northern Ohio we call them Woolybears, where in Vermilion, OH takes place the Woolybear Festival. It is the largest one day event in the State of Ohio. The 37th annual took place this year in late September. In the original location of the festival you will find the Woolybear Restaurant and the Big Bear sandwich. http://vermilionohionews.homestead.com/Woollybear.html

[lx700kev]

John said in an earlier post.... &#34;Plus, I could always be WRONG!&#34;
Yeah, right.....And bears don&#39;t poopy in the woods.

[favoritos]

Seems to be a bit of a contrast. Let&#39;s see who gets this right.
http://www.farmersalmanac.com/weather/a/frigid-2010-forecast-how-cold-will-the-w inter-weather-be (http://www.farmersalmanac.com/weather/a/frigid-2010-forecast-how-cold-will-the-winter-weather-be)
I hate to admit I&#39;m rooting against you John.

[rooney11979]

Either way both of them say dry and little snow. If its not gonna be white it might as well be warm.

[rsvectordude]

Weak outlook or not one thing is certain the UP will be white this winter. It is every year!!!