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View Full Version : Dow Breaks 10,000 Now What.?



whitedust
10-14-2009, 06:32 PM
WOW! To me if you got in at 6500 in March you would have to be nuts not to go to cash now. At least some of your stock should go to cash for awhile. What a huge profit in such a short time & isn't that what it is all about? What to do??

lenny
10-14-2009, 08:36 PM
good to hear that

hunter74
10-14-2009, 08:56 PM
Big question is... what week does the Vikings yearly meltdown start this yr?

rakins800
10-14-2009, 10:03 PM
now it takes a 600 point nosedive by Thanksgiving.

kevisip
10-15-2009, 08:55 AM
Well, if we can shed off 700,000 more jobs, we can get the DOW up to 11000, then we can start to be more happy as we open up our 401ks. Never mind the fact that you might not have a job.

Hunter, please! Old cheese doesn't melt!

Hoosier
10-15-2009, 09:43 AM
Keep in mind that the dollar has dropped in value considerably during the DOWs increase.

samc
10-15-2009, 10:04 AM
What until inflation starts!

skidoolis
10-15-2009, 10:11 AM
we will see when the quarterly earning reports come out big dive are you in front of the train on the train or behind the train hang on here we go come on golden years

maddogg
10-15-2009, 10:34 AM
Now gas will hit $5 a gallon again.

kevisip
10-15-2009, 11:09 AM
gas will be low for some time. Thats my prediction. Less people driving, vacationing, more people unemployed, no job to drive to. Add that all up, and less demand. Unless they cut production, then we could see costs ramp up.

booondocker
10-15-2009, 12:17 PM
Kev, it doesn&#39;t matter about all that...we are at a point where if the dollar drops in value, people flock to buy oil.<font color="ff0000">•</font><font color="ff0000">•</font><font color="ff0000">•</font><font color="ff0000">•</font> is the new gold standard.

I think that the &#34;real&#34; numbers will be coming out over the next two months, showing a major increase in unemployment, foreclosures are already hitting records over the last 3 months, and this will all come out right at the xmas buying time, causing that market to collapse. This will hit the press heavily, and the stock market will recoil significantly. Remember stock brokers make money with it moving up or down, as it doesn&#39;t matter to them.

Couple the fact that many will be moving to close out positions on stocks that have taken a dump as we near the year end, to take the loss on income tax, and you have a receipe for disaster...but then maybe I am wrong :-&#41;

whitedust
10-15-2009, 12:32 PM
Well to me nothing is fixed. Less bad news maybe but unemloyment up, leveraged banks still in trouble, new housing non existent, real estate market still very depressed &amp; foreclosures steady not decreasing. Obama yesterday stated 70% of his shovel equity plan has been spent. Corps may show better returns but only because they cut the heck out of their work force in cost reductions. I just don&#39;t see how we have started a recovery that is self sustaining at thsi point in the process. Taxes have to go up on everything &amp; the Fed has to raise interest rates. To me DOW 10,000 is hollow &amp; don&#39;t be greedy take the cash &amp; profits now then reinvest after the next dip &amp; ride that up. Is that Wrong??

kevisip
10-15-2009, 12:34 PM
Boon,

I am sure there is truth to that. I would not dipute it. Things are not looking good out there like you said. To add to that, yes the dollar is dropping in value, countries are also looking to drop the dollar, not to mention there are a LOT of people with a lot more money than me buying gold. So your receipe for disaster is taking its
full course. Also dollar at new low, and gold at an ALL time high. I also work in the oil/gas industry, and our orders are at an all time low, but overseas they are ramping up, with HUGE orders for oil and gas. They dont have the policies we currently have in our country.

Again, I dont have the answers, but just witness the policy. H and C.

yamalaris
10-15-2009, 03:27 PM
There will be a conflict threatening the oil supply line 2nd week in November optimizing profits for Thanksgiving and Christmas. In the year 2010 there will be a refinery shut down or pipeline interruption on Monday May 24th, driving fuel prices up just in time for the Memorial and 4th of July drive time holidays. You can set your clock to it. Never fails!

kevisip
10-15-2009, 04:13 PM
Yamalaris,

There are always skeduled complete shut downs in the gas and oil industries. Refineries and pipelines replace warn parts, electronics, pipe sections and transmiters that fail out in the field. Sometimes the only way to fix and replace product it to do it all at once. It is a very expensive schedule driven. Everything had to be 100 percent perfect before systems can be brought on line. Pipelines also have to be x-rayed for cracked, broken, and deteriated welds. If none of this gets done, there will be the next Exon Valdez in the back of your yard with 100s of laywers standing in line to sue. Not to mention PETA and the EPA.

Oh well, such as life.

grub
10-15-2009, 05:13 PM
The house of cards will sustain itself until Nov. 2010 just after the elections. After that we will have to start paying for all this &#39;stimulus&#39; money with devalued American currency. Things will suck until the world ends on Dec, 21,2012. Many of us will welcome the end of the world by then.

dcsnomo
10-15-2009, 06:46 PM
Interesting thread, I certainly don&#39;t want to step in front of an emotionally fueled train. However, something to take note of. There are leading indicators, and there are trailing indicators. As an example, unemployment is the result of slowed sales, it is, therefor, a trailing indicator &#40;the crap has already hit the fan before people lose jobs&#41;. The flow of capital is a leading indicator, that is, those with the capital decide to quit sitting on it and invest it for the best return before the recovery, thus benefiting from the price appreciation as the recovery happens. To see the S&amp;P 500 go from 676 to 1092 in 8 months tells me that big money sees the future and likes it.
It takes a long time to clean up after a hurricane ends. But maybe, just maybe, this hurricane has ended, and money flowing back into markets is a solid leading indicator that it has. It will take a long time to clean up the mess, however.
Also, I am neither rich nor an economist!

jimjones
10-15-2009, 10:00 PM
dcsnomo,

Indicators? Its a good thing I invested in my properties and gold. Both have treated me very well. As for those S n P, Dow, indicators, you guys keep following them while the rest of us repair the real damage brought to this nation. I will be fine.

skylar
10-15-2009, 10:13 PM
I will be in the U.P. sledding on Dec 12 2012. http://www.johndee.com/discuss/clipart/happy.gif

samc
10-15-2009, 10:26 PM
grub - doom and gloom - no good. Like skylar said - Dec 21, 2012 will be riding!

whitedust
10-16-2009, 12:26 PM
DOW down 100 &amp; dropping this morning because BAC lost their <font color="ff0000">•</font><font color="ff0000">•</font><font color="ff0000">•</font> on foreclosures. Heck I knew that before quartly report. A lot of banks still upside down &amp; will be for a very long time. Seems goofy to react with a sell off based on BAC unless DOW is over valued at this time which is my opinion. Take profits &amp; be happy &amp; then ride up later in 2010. HFT is where the money flows.

frnash
10-16-2009, 12:48 PM
<font color="0000ff">whitedust:
&#34;Heck I knew that before quartly report.&#34;</font>
Shucks, I missed that, I only saw the pintly report! http://www.johndee.com/discuss/clipart/happy.gif

kevisip
10-16-2009, 01:44 PM
MONEY, money, MONEY, it tastes like honey!

dcsnomo
10-16-2009, 02:21 PM
Hey nash-
If it was a European company would it be a litre-ly report?

whitedust
10-16-2009, 02:22 PM
funny stuff nash how about Q3 reporthttp://www.johndee.com/discuss/clipart/happy.gif Lot more Q3s due next week....we all will know more then but still think you take some profit now &amp; not get too greedy. Always can ride back up later so take some cash now. Just can&#39;t make the most of stock market but holding any longer.

pfeifest
10-17-2009, 08:07 PM
I don&#39;t trust these numbers at all. The market has just come too far too fast. My company &#40;large insurance&#41; hasn&#39;t seen any sort of a turn-around that is for sure.

I bought silver &#40;physical&#41;, silver stocks &#40;SLW&#41;, Russian stocks &#40;VIP, MTL&#41;, and dry bulk shippers back in April. Just have the silver, cash, and a few miscellaneous dividend stocks left.

sammy
10-18-2009, 12:31 AM
buy now

toad220
10-18-2009, 12:07 PM
Sammy ur back has ur new Tatt scabbed over yet ?

kevisip
10-18-2009, 09:17 PM
A wise profit once told me, buy low sell high. Ever since that great advice I have been a multi multi millionaire. Buy gold, so I can sell.....please.

frnash
10-18-2009, 10:11 PM
I guess a wise &#34;profit&#34; would know how to make a &#34;prophet&#34;, eh? http://www.johndee.com/discuss/clipart/happy.gif

sammy
10-20-2009, 12:59 AM
buy now

upstate
10-20-2009, 11:59 AM
Someone posted this co. awhile ago. Could get interesting. CYPW

whitedust
10-20-2009, 12:38 PM
Quick search &amp; CYPW is tanking ....no yield. Would not spend 1 cent on that! A lot better stock out there.

sammy
10-21-2009, 10:46 PM
buy now

whitedust
10-22-2009, 12:43 PM
A little bad news on Wells yesterday &amp; went from positive to 96 negative in last 30 minutes. I think investors waiting for 2nd boot to drop &amp; will flee as soon as the leather hits their butts. Very nervous market now be careful.....

marty__kms
10-22-2009, 01:15 PM
Listening to all this causes me great joy in the fact that I sold my home in Chicago in 2005, then cashed 15 years of 401K with a 4% match on 6 figure during 2005/2006. That partial 10% penalty feels pretty good now, LMAO now while livin in the U.P. eat nuts ní berries, lucky is as lucky does.

jimjones
10-22-2009, 01:36 PM
hOpE-n-ChAnGe.

Somebody voted for it.

Well, back outside to pick my nuts. I now have to compete with the squirls.

anonomoose
10-22-2009, 04:16 PM
&#34;...I now have to compete with the squirls.
&#34;

Would that be the Plural of girls???

dcsnomo
10-22-2009, 04:32 PM
I never pick my nuts outside

sammy
10-22-2009, 10:51 PM
buy now

whitedust
10-23-2009, 11:50 AM
Seems sideways when ups &amp; downs are considered this week....... so far.

sammy
10-25-2009, 09:43 AM
buy now

whitedust
10-26-2009, 12:20 PM
sammy: do you care to elaborate since you pasted the same thing 5 times in the thread? Your NY/NY location..... need jobs on Wall Street &amp; banking?

samc
10-26-2009, 01:48 PM
buy now if you have some money is not a bad idea. Stock are fairly low right now and some deals are out there.

Hoosier
10-26-2009, 02:11 PM
marty - looks like you timed it perfectly!

sammy
10-26-2009, 07:59 PM
INVEST NOW

qber
10-26-2009, 11:09 PM
Just bought a new sled - that should send the DOW up a bit
Ted

kevisip
10-27-2009, 07:17 AM
I showed up for work, that also sent the DOW up.

whitedust
10-30-2009, 06:19 PM
YIKES! Not a good day down 249. Monday &amp; next week will tell the story.... correction or sell off? What will happen to CIT over the weekend?

yamahauler
10-30-2009, 07:18 PM
Glad I sold some at the end of the day yesterday. Price dropped $2/share today.

snoeatr
10-31-2009, 01:45 AM
Its kinda funny.... A couple days ago I read an article on Yahoo that said &#34;Best day in a year on wallstreet.&#34; I believe the market had gained 2% in one day. Today it lost 2.5% and I didn&#39;t see anything stating it was a bad day.

whitedust
10-31-2009, 01:12 PM
That&#39;s why you have to come here where the real people speak their minds. Friday was a BAD DAY &amp; next week will tell the longer term story. If we have a huge sell off then the story is the fundamentals are not in place &amp; recovery can not self sustain at current upward levels. If the market trades upwards investors think this is the real deal recovery. If the market goes sideways no one is sure. So you must pick 1 out of 3 applications &amp; my gut feel is down.....not the real deal yet.

yamahauler
10-31-2009, 03:15 PM
sno...but within the last year, -250 wasn&#39;t a bad day, -500&#43; was.

whitedust
10-31-2009, 04:36 PM
Next week will tell a lot. Obama already saying the pie not as sweet as it seems.......to me prep for the decline next week. Who knows but time will tell all.

sammy
10-31-2009, 09:40 PM
folks buy now

snoeatr
11-01-2009, 02:24 AM
sammy must work for the government

ubee
11-01-2009, 02:38 AM
November is traditionaly a sell-off month for the stockmarket.we will see!

mjkaliszak
11-01-2009, 10:03 AM
The money never seems to &#34; disappear <font color="ff0000">•</font><font color="ff0000">•</font><font color="ff0000">•</font><font color="ff0000">•</font><font color="ff0000">•</font><font color="ff0000">•</font> just changes hands. From my hard working hands to some super wealthy mega millionare. Who already has enough cash to support their decendents for decades. With the market at such high numbers where&#39;s the money ? I left 1 small IRA in the market in a diversified account. It should be at 22k to 25K initially, it has only recovered to 14K to 15K. We pulled 95% of our money OUT and plan to stay out ! After watching the market since the 80&#39;s it has been 1 scam after another &#40; 2008, 2001,S&amp;L issue, White water, ect...&#41; I&#39;ll cut my severe losses and move on. Good Luck with the market,

whitedust
11-01-2009, 11:31 AM
I&#39;m out of those types of funds for about 5 years but ok when employer was contributing. Best to hand pick your stocks &amp; buy &amp; sell yourself. There are some great stocks out there if you do your homework but some of the diversified mutal funds are proven losers &amp; only do well when any idiot can make money in the market. I&#39;m not ready to go long on many stocks ....yet.

Sammy just keeps cutting &amp; pasting for laughs &amp; giggles, I guess, probably doesn&#39;t have any stock nor understanding of the market.

rakins800
11-01-2009, 12:00 PM
...the nose dive is coming,next 3 weeks.

yamahauler
11-01-2009, 03:36 PM
Wasn&#39;t Sept &amp; Oct historically the worst mnths for the market, and well, the economist got that wrong as well. Have the economist got anything prediction right...I don&#39;t think anyone has a clue as to how this is going to play out.

ubee
11-01-2009, 10:20 PM
News Alert
04:23 PM EST Sunday, November 1, 2009

CIT Group Inc filed for bankruptcy protection on Sunday, and its creditors have already approved the commercial lender&#39;s reorganization plan.

For more information, visit washingtonpost.com - http://link.email.washingtonpost.com/r/2GZNC0/SQQ3W/JIPESP/YVWXPD/Q127Y/LE/t

yamahauler
11-01-2009, 10:28 PM
Seen the CIT bankruptcy coming for months...they have been hurting for quite a while now. Too bad for those who lost money.

sammy
11-01-2009, 11:41 PM
hi yeild stocks buy

whitedust
11-02-2009, 08:51 AM
Bye Bye to our CIT bailout stock.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/CIT-files-for-Chapter-11-apf-1202955938.html?x=0&amp;s ec=topStories&amp;pos=main&amp;asset=&amp;ccode= (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/CIT-files-for-Chapter-11-apf-1202955938.html?x=0&amp;sec=topStories&amp;pos=main&amp;asset= &amp;ccode=)

ubee
11-02-2009, 09:58 AM
Seems kind of weasel like to file on a Sunday! New York lawyers must be atheist!! November is just starting!

whitedust
11-02-2009, 10:18 AM
They wait until Sunday when all hope is lost before the market opens Monday. They look for Hail Mary plays that some dark horse will come forward &amp; bail them out. Close of market Friday you usually know who is going down over the weekend.

ubee
11-05-2009, 09:24 AM
Now wallstreet gets their h1n1 shots first cause they are more at risk!wt% Its becoming quite obvious who washington is looking out for! I would have thought a bunch of mattresses around the nyse building would be a better choice.

sammy
11-05-2009, 10:32 PM
great buys buy now

whitedust
11-06-2009, 10:32 AM
What are you talking about sammy stocks are expensive now at 10,000? That is the point you have to wait &amp; look for the dip that sustains for awhile. Market has been up &amp; down in last 2 weeks depending on the news of the day. Dangerous time to buy especially if retail is not good during the next 2 months. Stocks will fall like a rock on a bad Xmas retail season which means main street not on board with recovery. 70% of USA economy is retail driven!

jimjones
11-06-2009, 11:04 AM
Sammy is trying to get out now. He needs you to buy in so he can sell high. 190000 more jobs cut as announced today. So it could go higher eventually as biznes balance there books. But that of course does not give confidence to those who where let go. Just wait till health-care for all, and Cap and Trade gets passed. Soon we will all be wards of the state.
Have a nice friday.

sammy
11-07-2009, 12:08 AM
dow going to 14000 my opinion. buy now

ddogg
11-07-2009, 02:57 AM
Remember when no one took Canadian coins because they weren&#39;t worth anything. I need to find those coins to cash in now!!

whitedust
11-07-2009, 10:47 AM
Unemployment could be as high as 17.5% with people timing out &amp; off rolls. They don&#39;t know how to estimate the real stats. When considering part timers,side jobs, new biz star ups the US Gov really does not know but 10.2% they do know about &amp; planning on over 11% by Q2 2010 is NOT a consumer driven recovery. The Market Friday was stunned by large gain in unemployment numbers but did not want to give up the weeks gains. The Feds same old same old on 0% interest made traders happy but we know that has to turn up in 6 months or less. Next we will see how happy the market is next week &amp; the week after that &amp; if no correction this is the real deal for a weird but real recovery.

grub
11-07-2009, 01:20 PM
Christmas retail numbers will tell real story.

kevisip
11-07-2009, 02:03 PM
So will my magic 8 ball.

sammy
11-08-2009, 11:38 PM
thank you whitedust

whitedust
11-09-2009, 10:48 AM
sammy if you want to buy in to this hollow market don&#39;t thank me as I still think that would be foolish. Stocks overpriced @ DOW 10,000 wait for correction. Take profit while you can is the only way I see it before all is vapor. Bonds make sense &amp; will hold value.... most stocks just over valued paper.

sammy
11-10-2009, 12:50 AM
ok whitedust thanks for your opinion buy now

whitedust
11-10-2009, 09:09 AM
Sammy: If you listen to the sunshine pump it goes like this: keep value of the dollar low so we do more exporting, keep interest rates at 0, no inflation, no new taxes to pay back anything the gov has spent, ok to let unemployment rise to over 11% by Q2 2010 &amp; real numbers more like 20%. So we throw the American consumer in the trash, nothing costs more &amp; only 80% have a job but the DOW climbs to 1400. Makes no sense at all &amp; not sustainable.

kevisip
11-10-2009, 09:13 AM
It helps he we embrace capitalism again, instead of the path we are going down.

whitedust
11-10-2009, 09:49 AM
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/368866/Charlie-Gasparino-Job-Losses -Could-Trigger-Round-2-of-Banking-Crisis?tickers=bac,wfc,jpm,c,gs,ms,xlf&amp;sec=top Stories&amp;pos=9&amp;asset=&amp;ccode= (http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/368866/Charlie-Gasparino-Job-Losses-Could-Trigger-Round-2-of-Banking-Crisis?tickers=bac%2Cwfc%2Cjpm%2Cc%2Cgs%2Cms%2Cxlf &amp;sec=topStories&amp;pos=9&amp;asset=&amp;ccode=)

Here it is from an expert. You can not ingnor unemployment of 11%&#43; without an economic crash. More foreclosuers would sink the banks caused by unemploymed mortgage defaults. Stock Market a house of cards for sure.

olsmann
11-10-2009, 11:07 AM
Bottom line is! No one can predict the future. Not even the so called experts.

kevisip
11-10-2009, 11:47 AM
Its not so bad out there. It could be worse, unemployment could be 12%. Look on the bright side, you get to spend more time with the loved ones.

ubee
11-14-2009, 10:51 AM
Lots of different takes out there,heres another one NEW YORK &#40;AP&#41; - Somebody on a bus asks a friend, &#34;How about that stock market?&#34; The response: &#34;Unbelievable.&#34; Caribbean vacationers lounging poolside check their Blackberries for stock prices. Suburban gym members chat about the latest market gains during their morning workouts.

Welcome to the 2009 bull market - or so many people think. They&#39;re buying up shares of everything from Google Inc. to Bank of America Corp. at a pace not seen since the 1930s. Since March, the Dow Jones industrial average has jumped 57 percent and the Standard &amp; Poor&#39;s 500 index has gained 62 percent.

Investors are betting on a strong economic recovery. But here&#39;s the problem: Good news ahead could be bad news for the bull.

To understand why, consider the very thing that has boosted the market. The U.S. government has spent nearly $1 trillion to stimulate the economy and the Federal Reserve has maintained a policy of keeping interest rates near zero.

Those will disappear as the economy&#39;s health improves, potentially halting the bull market by taking away what has been its crutch - sources of cheap and plentiful money.

&#34;Pretty soon the easy money phase could be behind us,&#34; said Hugh Johnson, chairman and chief investment officer of Johnson Illington Advisors, an investment firm in Albany, N.Y.

The government has plunged big money into the marketplace, through tax cuts, construction projects and other measures. At the same time, low interest rates have invigorated stocks by reducing borrowing costs and bolstering corporate profits.

The low rates have also knocked down the returns of other short-term investments, like government bonds and money-market funds. Since people aren&#39;t getting high returns on those investments, they&#39;re buying stocks.

Stocks are risky because they don&#39;t guarantee a return, and the recent bear market shows how deeply share prices can drop. From October 2007 through March, the Dow industrials lost 53 percent.

&#34;The Fed is forcing everyone to take risk by buying stocks because if you don&#39;t take risk, you will be earning nothing on your money,&#34; said Ed Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research.

Yardeni said his clients, which include pension funds and institutional investors, feel like they don&#39;t have a choice but to buy stocks right now. He sees lots of &#34;fully invested bears&#34; - investors who don&#39;t believe that investing in stocks makes sense right now because of the state of the economy, but they are buying anyway because they worry they might miss out on a bull run.

The Dow is trading above 10,000 for the first time since October 2008, though it is still 27 percent below its peak two years ago. The S&amp;P 500 has gone up almost 7 percent just this month.

Plenty of investors and analysts don&#39;t see an end to those gains, especially if the economy picks up in the coming months. But a strong economy is just what Yardeni and some others on Wall Street say could thwart the rally should it lead to higher interest rates and waning government stimulus.

The Fed isn&#39;t expected to act soon. The U.S. central bank has kept the target range for its bank lending rate at zero to 0.25 percent since December. It pledged this month to keep that rate at a record low for an &#34;extended period.&#34; How long that really means is anyone&#39;s guess.

The Fed said in a statement after its November meeting that economic activity has &#34;continued to pick up&#34; and that the housing market has strengthened - a key ingredient for a sustained recovery. But a 10.2 percent unemployment rate and weak consumer spending is still plenty worrisome to the economy&#39;s overall health.

Yardeni thinks once the Fed even begins to hint of looming changes in its interest-rate policy it will &#34;take the steam out of this rally,&#34; he said. &#34;It won&#39;t take much to push this market back down.&#34;

In the past, higher rates didn&#39;t knock down stocks immediately. The Fed cut its benchmark rate from 2001 through 2003 to stimulate growth, taking it down to a low of 1 percent, where it stayed for a year. The low rates reduced mortgage costs, feeding the housing boom, and sparked a bull market in stocks.

The Fed started to slowly raise rates in July 2004 to slow the economy and keep inflation in check. The housing market peaked in 2006 and the stock market followed in 2007. After that, both headed into a free fall.

Back in 1982, a sustained bull market began amid a deep recession, and the gains lasted even though the Fed began to boost rates. There was more to lure investors back to stocks then, notes David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Canadian wealth management Gluskin Sheff.

Stock dividend yields were 6 percent then; today they are below 2 percent. That means investors had a greater potential to generate income off their stock investments, regardless of whether prices rose or fell. Bond yields were at double-digits and were expected to fall in 1982; today short-term bonds pay nearing nothing and yields will likely head higher. That could make fixed-income investments more attractive.

Investors still should heed the potential danger signs of today&#39;s market, before their exuberance gets the better of them.

---

Rachel Beck is the national business columnist for The Associated Press. Write to her at rbeck&#40;at&#41;ap.org

whitedust
11-14-2009, 01:11 PM
All the Retailers Hmm/Haw yada/ yada/ yada just have no idea if the consumer will spend big bucks for Xmas. Recovery 70% driven by the consumer.If Q4 Retail goes flat or very weak I think there will be a rush to cash again away from stocks. If Xmas Retail does well then stock buying will pick up steam as profits should be good &amp; we are starting to self sustain. I was at Kohls Friday &amp; they kept calling up cashiers to check out very heavy buying traffic. Kohls has a very agressive maketing effort that is working. Shopko, Walmart, Menards not much buying going on &amp; small crowd. Thanksgiving &amp; December Retail will define where we are going in 2010.

sammy
11-14-2009, 09:48 PM
4TH QUARTER RETAIL EXPECTED TO BE Up TRIPLE AMOUNT FROM LAST YEAR.watch this weeks stocks

whitedust
11-16-2009, 08:56 PM
Mostly Sunny Or Partly Cloudy...seems to be a thin line between the 2.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Retail-sales-rise-14-percent-apf-1851539352.html?x =0&amp;sec=topStories&amp;pos=9&amp;asset=&amp;ccode= (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Retail-sales-rise-14-percent-apf-1851539352.html?x=0&amp;sec=topStories&amp;pos=9&amp;asset=&amp;cc ode=)

sammy
11-16-2009, 09:07 PM
whitedust now is it time.

whitedust
11-16-2009, 09:46 PM
Sammy you are micro managing the market on a daily bases. That is ok if that is how you invest. The entire post was regarding Q4 &amp; beyond. I&#39;m looking to the end of Q4 2009 to have a better understanding of where to go long in 2010. As I said before if you invested in March &amp; DOW over 10,000 it would be very wise to cash in some profits &amp; re-enter later. Don&#39;t get too greedy &amp; lose an opp.to make some dough. Above artical I called Mostly Sunny Or Partly Cloudy sums it up.... the good, the bad &amp; the risks. Bond fund investments are doing very well income &#43; growth so stay there as will never see these conditions again and this is a long term income investment of at least a year. You don&#39;t expand on anything so I have no idea what you are doing or referring to. Time to do what? .... with what?

m8man
11-16-2009, 10:14 PM
whitedust,
I love reading about this stuff all the time.. I am interested in how you said on Sat Nov 7th at 9am ish that it has to turn around in 6 months or less, were you referring to interest rates or the economy or both?? I find it hard to believe bonds will hold their value if rates trend up! maybe on 1 yr or less paper but that&#39;s about it.. Credit spreads have tightened significantly in the last 6 months thus pushing bond values higher even investment grade corp&#39;s have had a great run.. Rates are at 70 yr lows with bond prices at &#34;Near&#34; 70 yr highes..I think most bond funds would be the worst place to be as they have no final maturity date, even if internal investments do.. This has been one of the few times where investors have made principal gains as well as income on bond funds...I find the best place to invest is on bonds with a 3-5 yr maturity. If you interpolate the yield curve to treasury spreads the value is in this approx area.. I am selling bond funds for our clients due to anticiapted rates rising in Q3 or Q4 or 2010..Some Bonds are conservative and some bond funds could be also, but most have the go for it attitude and your at the whims of other people when they select your holdings in a fund.. In a rising rate environment the last thing I would want is a bond fund that has a duration that keeps lengthening and risk that keeps growing.. So make sure if you buy a fund that it has short term bonds... You can also buy things called Exchange traded funds &#40;ETF&#39;s&#41; such as the ishares Barclay&#39;s 1-3 yr, ticker &#40;SHY&#41;, and have interday liquidity where compared to a fund you have end of the day liquidity...If an individual has over $10K to invest there is no need for bond funds or Mutual funds... In today&#39;s world people should use ETF&#39;s as they are more liquid and more cost effective.. You are also less likely to have long and short term capital gain distributions at the end of the year...btw I couldn&#39;t agree with you more on going to cash if you bought in March, April area.. The one rule I use is if your return is above the market take the gain and go from &#34;paper to pocket&#34;.. I did buy a bunch of Coach &#40;coh&#41; stock in April as the only thing I could notice while I was sitting in a bar in Appleton, WI while my wife was spending major bucks in the coach store was how many of them suckers &#40;coach bags&#41; I now noticed.. So I bought the stock somewhere around 15-18 or so and I sold it today at about 36 per share.. There are a few other winners but I have some &#34;unmentionables&#34; also...If you have a nice profit or any profit there is never a problem taking it in my book...Stocks or bonds.

Just some thoughts and sorry about the rambling.. My job is to do Economic forecasting and manage about $300 million in bonds for the largest independent bank/trust company in the U.P.

I normally just read these posts and stay away but I thought I&#39;d chime in as I&#39;m bored tonight...Hope all is well and happy sleddin.

m8man

ubee
11-16-2009, 10:43 PM
This ones kicking butt http://research.scottrade.com/public/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?symbol=hog

whitedust
11-16-2009, 10:49 PM
m8man: You mean this? &#40;Unemployment could be as high as 17.5% with people timing out &amp; off rolls. They don&#39;t know how to estimate the real stats. When considering part timers,side jobs, new biz star ups the US Gov really does not know but 10.2% they do know about &amp; planning on over 11% by Q2 2010 is NOT a consumer driven recovery. The Market Friday was stunned by large gain in unemployment numbers but did not want to give up the weeks gains. The Feds same old same old on 0% interest made traders happy but we know that has to turn up in 6 months or less. Next we will see how happy the market is next week &amp; the week after that &amp; if no correction this is the real deal for a weird but real recovery.&#41;

I agree with everything you said about bonds but check charts on American Bond Funds from March to date. I won&#39;t say which ones but if you sell them you will know. You could have your cake &amp; eat it too but we will never see that again bond income yield &amp; growth. Long for me since October of 08 is about a year then option to hold or sell. I only buy income investments at this stage of life. Since I bought in March I keep selling so I stay even at starting investement point &amp; yields rolling in as well. If principal gains go away either sell or stay with yield but always the game with bonds.

sammy
11-17-2009, 12:21 AM
bonds are at all time high sell buy stocks

whitedust
11-17-2009, 01:17 PM
Not true there is still gain on bonds both could run out of steam soon but a lot less to lose on bonds if anything. Stocks could drop like a rock if a correction. Take profit &amp; hold on both to see where we are going. Fundamentals not established.

snow_monkey
11-17-2009, 02:01 PM
Anytime is a good time to invest provided you are well diversified. If you are young now is the time to invest. I like kevisip&#39;s 8 ball idea. Make educated choices than leave it alone!! I check my portfolio every quarter just to peek. Sometimes it can be ugly. last quarter rocked!!!

whitedust
11-17-2009, 02:18 PM
snow monkey: old rules to new game only works if you have lots of time. HFT is the new norm to make the most of it but I understand where you are comimg from. No way I will be sitting on investments. Ride them up then sell look for next opp. Short on most things even bonds until Q1 2010 has direction.

jimjones
11-17-2009, 02:23 PM
I would start investing in Carbon Credits before its too late. Get in now, get in on the bottom, then sky-rocket to wealth by 2012. Invest before its too late!

rocketman356
11-17-2009, 04:39 PM
Carbon Fiber royal chips is where to be ,,,,,buy all yaa can now.

sammy
11-18-2009, 11:49 PM
CARBON credits are also agood buy thanks jimjones

sammy
11-19-2009, 08:54 PM
buy now

whitedust
11-20-2009, 12:41 PM
Rally maybe losing steam on reports of rough road ahead thus the down market of late. Not too long to wait for Xmas retail reports &amp; see if consumers dug another debt hole with ccs &amp; bought big or held back. 5 weeks &amp; we will know. The same stocks you buy now could be a lot cheaper in Q1 2010. Wait &amp; see &amp; cash in some profits then look to 2010 for best plan. Also big box stores ready to out do each other with Thanksgiving &amp; holiday promos. Will we show up or play chicken with sale prices or just stay within budgets???

skidoolis
11-20-2009, 12:49 PM
CARNS ????

luke_duke
11-20-2009, 03:32 PM
Opened an online acct this past summer and put money in 1 company and planned to keep it in for years. It has doubled my money since. I really don&#39;t know carp bout the market but I am learning quickly. This last week I put more money in kohls stock based partly on Whitedust&#39;s input on an earlier post and Sammy pressuring me to &#34;buy buy buy!&#34; Since then it hasn&#39;t done so well, so maybe I am a jinx. I plan on letting it ride for a while since my other stock has it covered many times over. What should I do now Sammy?...drink some juice! Lol

m8man
11-20-2009, 05:26 PM
sell the winner!!

m8man

rocketman356
11-20-2009, 05:31 PM
#1 mistake is listening 2 sammy is a alias yaa know.Buy now,,,,,,,,,,buy now

jpsted
11-20-2009, 06:17 PM
Look for SRS to be a money maker Q1 FY10! Next market to implode, CRE.

whitedust
11-20-2009, 07:32 PM
Kohls &amp; Walmart very good retail stocks to own Dollar General too. You don&#39;t have to worry about them much just let them ride.

toad220
11-20-2009, 08:07 PM
Drill Here Drill Now

sammy
11-20-2009, 10:26 PM
ok luke duke iam long term and will not sell profit like whitedust before yr. end. why pay taxes? even if market slides which it has to. be ready for 2010.also interest rates can only go up from here whitedust, so bonds i personally would not buy.again unless its long term bonds.

rocketman356
11-20-2009, 11:15 PM
Taxes,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,lol,,,,,,,,,who is going 2 B paying any taxes this spring? Obama will B own his own big time.Is it spend here tax now

toad220
11-20-2009, 11:24 PM
Spend Here Tax Now

luke_duke
11-21-2009, 12:13 AM
I wasn&#39;t planning on selling any of the original stock I have..it was put in on the idea I might lose it. Its more of a long term investment. It has been a heck of a surprise though. The kohls stock/money I just invested will be used to buy and sell if need be. That&#39;s my plan anyways&#40;how good of a plan it is, I don&#39;t know&#41;. Its been a lot of fun. Thanks for the assurance whitedust because I was wondering what the he_ _ I was doing.

whitedust
11-21-2009, 01:00 PM
sammy did not know you were looking for the slide with buy buy buy posts. Your are long while I take profits here &amp; there enjoy the cash &amp; tend not to get too greedy but looking to go long in 2010. Taxes not a concern for me this year. luke duke Kohls had a kickass Q3 &amp; will do well Q4 the other retailers I don&#39;t know yet.

rocketman356
11-22-2009, 12:24 AM
buy Walmart ,,,,,,,,,,,,,China owns Obama

sammy
11-23-2009, 08:17 PM
buy now