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  1. #1
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    Default Winter weather predictions 2012-2013

    HELLO FELLOW SNOWMOBILE FRIENDS THIS MAY HELP YOUR SUMMER TIME BLUES. I FOUND THIS LONG RANGE WINTER FORECAST TODAY ON THE INTERNET. LONG RANGE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. I DON'T KNOW HOW MUCH WEIGHT I PUT IN THIS BUT AT LEAST IT SOUNDS GOOD AND WE HAVE HOPE FOR GOOD WINTERS TO COME. HE IS A EXPERT!!!


    AccuWeather.com Long Range Expert Joe Bastardi believes there is a significant chance for particularly frigid winters in 2012-2013 and 2013-2014 into 2014-2015.

    Bastardi said these winters could be similar to winters of the late 1970s.

    He said, "While the most consistent of the cold is to the north, severe bouts of cold deep into Texas and Florida would be capable of affecting agriculture more so than we've seen in that last 20 years or so."

    A combination of factors that parallel the precursors to historically cold winters is leading Bastardi to this forecast.

    He said, "We have a cold Pacific now. We had a La Nina, El Nino, then a stronger La Nina [similar to the cycle] that happened in the early to mid '70s that set up the winters of the late '70s."

    The winters of the late 1970s were particularly cold. Bastardi believes the winters of 2012-2013, 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 will be similar. Image courtesy of NOAA.

    These weather patterns, plus the wild cards of volcanic activity and solar activity, have Bastardi looking ahead.

    "The last time we had arctic volcanoes go off, in 1912 - similar to what we had two winters ago - the winters three years removed got very bad across the United States," Bastardi said.

    "If we put together the combination of La Nina, El Nino, La Nina again and we look at what happened when that happened before with a cold Pacific, and we also understand that the volcanoes may be involved along with the low sunspot activity, one could come to the conclusion that a series of very cold winters... could be on the way," he said.

    Bastardi said this is all part of a natural pattern of reversal which he believes will lead to a crash in global temperatures over the next nine months, from the very warm levels set off by El Nino - as forecast globally by AccuWeather.com.

    In the longer term, this is all part of a cyclical event which Bastardi believes will return the earth's temperatures by 2030 back to where they were in the late '70s at the end of the last cold PDO [Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or El Ninolike pattern] and the beginning of the satellite era of measuring temperatures objectively.

  2. #2
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    Seems like there is at least some science behind that. I'm on board. Bring on the blower pow!

  3. #3
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    LOL..... see where the winter midwest jet stream goes & that will be our winter pattern. Sounds like a lot of smoke & mirrors to me. 101F in Chicago this week sure NOT cold in any way.

  4. #4

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    I don't put any faith into these long term forecasts. Mother nature do what she wants when she wants. Although would be nice if we could count on it.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by moosehead View Post
    I don't put any faith into these long term forecasts. Mother nature do what she wants when she wants. Although would be nice if we could count on it.
    I don't put much faith into "this guy" (Bastardi) long term forecasts especially. If I remember correctly there was something in one of last years threads about his long range forecast for an extremely cold & snowy winter. What did we get? Third broken winter in a row, plus I got some extra weight from lack of usual winter activity, not to mention another reduced mileage for the 3rd year for the sled. I will say this, we are long over due for a "normal" UP winter & I do believe that will come back to us, eventually. Hopefully sooner than later.-Mezz

  6. #6

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    I'm calling it right now: the Laurium Glacier will last until June 2013.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by matti View Post
    I'm calling it right now: the Laurium Glacier will last until June 2013.
    I say it doesn't melt AT ALL in 2013.

  8. #8
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    I am with cuzzinloaf and Matti on this one. Anything positive is good news to me.

  9. #9
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    Positive facts for Midwest & day dreaming about winter in summer are 2 diffrent things. JD says his long range is always 50-50 & that is in October. Always fun to read these things but no faith in it at all.

  10. #10

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    That's even better! Good call.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by mezz View Post
    If I remember correctly there was something in one of last years threads about his long range forecast for an extremely cold & snowy winter. What did we get? Third broken winter in a row,
    Everyone predicted a cold and snowy winter last year, everyone! That wasn't unique to him.

  12. #12
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    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weathe...20112012/55890

    Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice......

    The video at the bottom makes me laugh, because being a snow lover and living through a winter, without a winter, what else can you do but laugh about it.

  13. #13

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    I will say this...we are due for a snowy cold one

  14. #14
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    ^^^^^^^^^^^
    This

  15. #15
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    It is fun to see what everyone has to say about this and yes I agree the weather men are hardly ever right with the current forcast let alone long range but what else do we talk about in the middle of the summer. Whitedust is closest to the correct answer on this the jet stream will determine what kind of winter we will have. If you can remember the winter of 2010-11 it dipped down below wisconsin for most of the winter. Wisconsin had more snow and it lasted longer than it did in Michigan. I rode til April 1 that year in Northwest wisconsin. The west also had epic snowfall. All we can do is wait and see.

  16. #16
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    Bastardi predicted a few times last winter that the change in the pattern was right around the corner and snow was coming. Im still waiting....... 100* and a drought here now....


    Every single weather person was wrong about last year....everyone. I will still read the predictions, but I wont be as optimistic this year.

    And Im buying a new sled, so this winter will probably be junk.....

  17. #17
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    I say a 50% of an above average winter, and a 50% chance of a below average winter.

  18. #18
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    Let's all hope and pray!!!!!!...If not....what's short for Bastardi...bastard?????...I think...

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by mspease View Post
    Everyone predicted a cold and snowy winter last year, everyone! That wasn't unique to him.
    Not exactly true. Although most of the so-called weather experts (including John Dee himself, btw) bought into the theory of a cold and snowy winter based on their interpretation of La Nina's potential impact, not everyone did. Karl Bohnak of TV-6 made a prediction that the North Pacific Oscillation would potentially have a neutralizing effect on La Nina and that he wasn't buying into the predictions for an especially cold and snowy winter that most of the others were predicting. I'm sure that since you were not aware of that prediction or your memory is not as good as mine, you could find record of it by digging into the TV-6 weather prediction archives. Read it and weep. With all due respect, Karl is still THE man.

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by kwikgren View Post
    Not exactly true. Although most of the so-called weather experts (including John Dee himself, btw) bought into the theory of a cold and snowy winter based on their interpretation of La Nina's potential impact, not everyone did. Karl Bohnak of TV-6 made a prediction that the North Pacific Oscillation would potentially have a neutralizing effect on La Nina and that he wasn't buying into the predictions for an especially cold and snowy winter that most of the others were predicting. I'm sure that since you were not aware of that prediction or your memory is not as good as mine, you could find record of it by digging into the TV-6 weather prediction archives. Read it and weep. With all due respect, Karl is still THE man.
    'Tis true. Karl did say that there was a greater than average chance that the UP winter would be mild, but it should also be pointed out that this took place in December (his assertions were based on November UP temps). Quite a big difference in time from when I put mine out in early October. By December, I was already beginning to see the ship had sailed on any ideas of the winter being a really big one. Plus, I go out of my way to say that ANY seasonal forecast (including mine) is not worth much. Although I wonder how may folks really take that to heart. Hopefully more after last winters bombed forecasts!

    With all that said... Karl does a great job and I hope the Marquette and surrounding areas realize how lucky they are to have someone like him in such a small market.

    -John

  21. #21
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    I remember the winters of the late 70's and early 80's.....

    Lots of snow and cold, we can all dream can't we?

  22. #22
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    http://johndee.com/history.htm

    The last 300 inch winter in the Keweenaw was in 2000-2001, that year appears to had a neutral Pacific surface temp. We were emerging from a deep La Nina and this coicides with what we are seeing right now. Hopefully that means we are due for a 250-300 inch winter as opposed to the 170 inch winter the Keweenaw saw.

  23. #23
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    Therefore, a 0% chance of an average winter?

    Hoosier

    I say a 50% of an above average winter, and a 50% chance of a below average winter.

  24. #24
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    This doesn't look good.

    DEC-FEB
    Last edited by mvedepo; 07-09-2012 at 08:32 AM.

  25. #25
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    All I know is, by judging the last 20 years I've been working in the ditches for gas, is that when I sweat my a$$ off in the summer, like this one, I end up freezing the rest of it off in the winter!!!! Was it '98 when it was this hot for long period of time, and that winter was brutally cold, not much snow from what I remember, just god awful cold!!!!!!

    Wasn't that the year Superior froze over completely?!

  26. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by frosty View Post
    All I know is, by judging the last 20 years I've been working in the ditches for gas, is that when I sweat my a$$ off in the summer, like this one, I end up freezing the rest of it off in the winter!!!! Was it '98 when it was this hot for long period of time, and that winter was brutally cold, not much snow from what I remember, just god awful cold!!!!!!

    Wasn't that the year Superior froze over completely?!
    I have also noticed this. Hot summer cold winter follows. Lets hope so.

  27. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by frosty View Post
    All I know is, by judging the last 20 years I've been working in the ditches for gas, is that when I sweat my a$$ off in the summer, like this one, I end up freezing the rest of it off in the winter!!!! Was it '98 when it was this hot for long period of time, and that winter was brutally cold, not much snow from what I remember, just god awful cold!!!!!!

    Wasn't that the year Superior froze over completely?!
    I am not sure of the correlation between really hot summers and what that means for the upcoming winter, but I did find some interesting stats on how often Lake Superior freezes over. It looks like it was about 90% frozen over in March of 2003, nearly 100% in 1996, 96% in 1994 and about 95% in 1972.

    Here is the link: http://climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/superior030603.htm
    Last edited by misty_pines; 07-23-2012 at 04:43 PM. Reason: added link

  28. #28
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    "The last records of complete ice coverage on the big lake is 1962 & 1979". The winter of '78-'79 was an epic year for snowfall here in the Keweenaw where we reached 390" of snowfall in Keweenaw County. I remember it well & continue to hope for a repeat performance.-Mezz

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